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CWA # 351, 27 September 2020
East Asia
Abe's Indo-Pacific legacy: Will the new PM follow it up?

  Kamna Tiwary

The idea of Indo-Pacific has never gone down well with the Chinese establishment. Beijing sees this as a containment strategy for China by the rest. This would Suga's greatest challenge.

Japan's new Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga is being looked as a close aide of Shinzo Abe, who would be continuing the policies and programmes of Abe's government primarily. His diplomatic credentials are being questioned largely because he lacks external exposure.  What will be Suga's approach towards the Indo-Pacific?

Indo-Pacific as an Abe legacy 
Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) has emerged as a measured response to China's Belt and Road Initiative and was considered an important foreign policy goal of Shinzo Abe's government. FOIP embodied goals of security along with establishing multilateral rule-based order. It later encompassed connectivity, energy, infrastructure etc. between all the countries of the region.

China's maritime ambitions have seen strong thrusts and enhanced capabilities. Her assertive nature towards the South China Sea and the East China Sea has been an issue for Japan. Early this year, there was a diplomatic row between the Japanese and the Chinese over the fishing waters near the Senkaku island. This incident also witnessed the chasing of Japanese fishing boats by the Chinese Coast Guards in May 2020. Japan has confronted issues over fishing waters near Senkaku island in the past and has followed it up with strong reactions then. 

China was one of the primary focus for Abe, which made him to look at the Indo-Pacific as a strategy. His address to the Indian Parliament in 2007, spoke about the "Confluence of Two Seas," in which he referred the following: The Pacific and the Indian Ocean are now bringing about a dynamic coupling as seas of freedom and prosperity. A "Broader Asia" that broke away geographical boundaries is now beginning to take on a distinct form. Our two countries have the ability and the responsibility to ensure that it broadens yet further and to nurture and enrich these seas to become seas of clearest transparency.

Ever since, the term Indo- Pacific started capturing the imagination of scholars and foreign policy experts more frequently after Shinzo Abe's speech. This is interesting because the term Indo- Pacific in Japan's view is about the confluence of the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean that encompasses a large area and can reinforce a rules-based international order, establishing a security regime protecting wary countries of China. Japan encouraged India, United States, and Australia to guard and harness the maritime security and resources of both oceans. 

The understanding of Indo-Pacific as a geographical region differs for countries that are part of the Quad. However, it is Japan that has understood Indo-Pacific as a large geographical region involving all of the Indian Ocean and the Pacific ocean. It is therefore now termed as FOIP ( Free and Open Indo-Pacific). 

Japan has recently (2018) chosen to call FOIP as a vision and not a strategy committed towards connectivity, energy and infrastructure. It also chose to conceal the security goals of FOIP. It was seen to be adopting an ambiguous position sending a message to other countries of Quad to have clearer goals about FOIP. 

Following the Indo-Pacific: The challenges for Yoshihida Suga.
Numerous international developments have taken place ever since Abe spoke about the Indo-Pacific in 2007. However, the discussion around Indo-Pacific never guaranteed a tough commitment from the countries in the picture till the recent past. To some extent, Australia has kept the concept of Indo-Pacific alive in her defence documents frequently. Lately, USA and ASEAN have also come out with their policy goals on Indo-Pacific.

In the recent past, the rising trade disputes between China and the US has established a cold war-like situation in the region. In this scenario, association with Indo-Pacific is being viewed as a tool to upset China and favour the US. Countries like Australia and Japan despite having tensions with China are mindful of their trade ties with her. While India, ASEAN countries do not adopt any committed approach towards the Indo-Pacific owing to China-USA balance. Even Japan has chosen not to send wrong signals to China in the evolving geopolitical situation.  

It is to be seen, how the recent skirmish near the Senkaku island has changed Japan's attitude of pursuing something serious regarding FOIP. The idea of Indo-Pacific has never gone down well with the Chinese establishment. Beijing sees this as a containment strategy for China by the rest. This would Suga's greatest challenge.

About the author

Dr Kamna Tiwary is an independent analyst

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